How To Read Polls Without Hyperventilating

Every once in a while, it's important to go back to basics. Now, this is a lesson the talking heads need to learn, but it is helpful for us to learn the same things. Polls are a snapshot in time. They are not predictive. They are not definitive. They are, however, representative. To insist the data shows a lead today is not to insist that the lead translates into a win tomorrow, next week or next month. Polls depend on good technique, good interpretation, and a representative sample The art of the pollster is in getting this part right. It's not easy, and some pollsters have a track record of doing this better than others. Party ID is a variable, for example, so decisions about weighting affect the results of the poll. However, huge fluctuations generally raise red flags, particularly when no event to match the fluctuations... [read full story]