Tale of Two Economic Releases

by Joseph Brusuelas Merk Hard Currency Fund The upcoming week will be defined by two closely linked US macroeconomic data that will frame the debate about which direction the economy is poised to take during the latter half of 2008. Yet, these two data are likely to paint two very different portraits regarding the condition of the economy. On Thursday the market will observe the preliminary estimate of economic growth during the second quarter of the year, followed by the publication of the July non-farm payrolls the next morning. According to Bloomberg, the current market consensus anticipates a 1.8% rate of growth, fractionally below our forecast of a 2.1%. Given the bear market rally that we have observed over the past week, there is little doubt that the 08:30 AM EDT release on Thursday morning will provide a fairly solid... [read full story]