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May 20, 2008
No Easy Answers in Lebanon
By Council On Foreign Relations
Whether Lebanon veered close to "civil war" this month--a question broached by many newspapers--seems purely academic at this point, and perhaps irrelevant. Beirut settled into a tenuous calm after Lebanon's cabinet conceded (CNN) the immediate demands of Hezbollah, but the upheaval resolved none of the many issues destabilizing the country. Lebanon's paralyzed government, Beirut's inability to reform its electoral system, and Hezbollah's broad influence continue to loom as threats to regional stability.
These concerns dominated recent meetings in Qatar, brokered by the Arab League. Lebanese officials sat down with their Hezbollah rivals and agreed to allow Qatar's prime minister propose a way to regulate Hezbollah's weapons (AFP). Analysis of the event suggests it could prove a diplomatic coup for Qatar (LAT), should it solve a problem that has for months riddled the Arab League. For Lebanon, however, easy answers remain elusive. CFR's Mohamad Bazzi, writing in the UAE paper The National, says the arms issue fits into a "Gordian Knot" of problems that includes: "the need to agree on a new electoral law before parliamentary elections in 2009; the country's future relationship with Syria; and the disarming of various factions in 12 Palestinian refugee camps scattered across Lebanon."
Although news reports generally scored April's violence as a victory for Hezbollah (WashPost), experts say the political fallout is in fact much more complicated. Indeed, some say the country may be emerging as a place nobody can decisively control--neither Hezbollah nor its pro-government foes. Although Hezbollah fighters succeeded in rapidly taking control of large parts of Beirut, they ceded these positions within hours to the Lebanese military. Newsweek's Christopher Dickey says the country has entered a dark cycle characterized by the "endless settling of past scores" in which "the worst [elements of Lebanese society], filled with passionate intensity and armed with rocket-propelled grenades, will rule the streets."
For the United States, these issues pose a significant dilemma. Proponents of President Bush's democratization efforts repeatedly cited Lebanon's pro-Western government as a case study of progress and hope. Now the country presents a darker specter. Washington fears a boost for Hezbollah will constitute a victory for Iran, which is widely thought to support the group. Countries like France, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia share U.S. concerns about creeping Iranian regional hegemony.
But Washington balances these pressures with a desire not to provoke large-scale unrest in Lebanon, a country many see as a proxy for some of the Middle East's most volatile conflicts. For instance, Washington may be hesitant to force its hand on Damascus at a time when Israel and Syria seem to be edging toward a possible peace (JPost), a compromise that could provide a way forward in the long-standing efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Nor can Washington necessarily afford an escalation of tensions with Tehran, which holds the capacity to play a major destabilizing role in Iraq. Michael Young, a political analyst based in Beirut, tells CFR.org that Lebanon's conflict reflects a disquieting new "cold war," adding that "things could get a lot worse before they get better."
