Thanks all
I am taking the laptop and will try to at least read some of the posts. I am sure I will get a few chances at various relatives we stay with to get on for a while.

Thanks for that tip Law.

What will happen between now and six years from now is a wide range of things but, within six years, according to the data the Gov. Accounting Office warned Congress about before this crisis even began, we will face another bigger crisis with debt exploding as we have to start borrowing for social security and Medicare on top of any other debt.

However, I don't think we can delay it that long, and the highest risk periods are right after the G-20 finishes meeting. A positive outcome for the dollar could delay things for a year or more.

The next high risk period, I believe is in June when the United Arab Emirates announced they will depeg from the dollar. If they go to a gold and silver backed dinar, then I think they will stop accepting dollars for oil and the dollar will collapse. While Brazil and Argentina have already stopped using the dollar in trade between them and four other nations say they are joining the move, it won't be enough to really damage the dollar as other trade they do in the world will still require dollars. But, their move and others when UAE depegs could really set the dollar on a down hill slide. Then the nations holding dollars would need to start dumping.

After that period, the next may be unpredictable as it will depend when we can't get loans enough to cover spending and have to start printing money just to cover social spending and interest on debt.

I start a 2 month trip in the morning and so I thought I'd get my last licks in tonight. I will be traveling to 3 state to visit relatives and then a cruise to Panama.

As fast as this is unraveling, and the G-20 meeting, I may have seek "asylum" while on the cruise at one of the ports the ship stops at. Seriously, I have heard more people are making plans, especially seniors, to leave the U.S. for retirement communities or other growth economies if this trend continues.

Many think people came here for freedom but, most came here for opportunity. Sadly, it may come to pass our young people being saddled with the bills this generation is leaving, may have to see opportunity in other nations that are growing manufacturing, research and development, and construction. However, until the global recession is over, those opportunities won't exist anyway in most cases and job sectors.

The more the price of oil drops, the worse it will be when the economy recovers.

quote;
IEA warns of new oil supply crunch
By Carola Hoyos, Ed Crooks and Javier Blas, Financial Times, 12 Nov 2008

A lack of investment in new sources of oil risks a supply crunch worse than the problems that pushed prices to $147 a barrel this summer, the developed world's energy watchdog said on Wednesday.

The International Energy Agency warned that cuts and delays in investment that were prompted by the fall in oil prices and the credit crunch had put the world "on a bad path".

Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA, said: "We hear almost every day about a project being postponed. This is a major problem."
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=664843
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I subscribe to google alerts to be notified when there are new articles out on "oil production" and "oil supply." Almost daily I get a "increased production in some new field, but, also several on dropping production, canceled projects or projects put on hold, and plans to cut production due to the cost of the well vs. price of oil.

The risk, of course is that they aren't keeping up with the declining major fields and when demand returns, there will be no way to keep up. It will take time to get projects going again if for no other reason than the oil companies won't even begin until the see the price is really going to hold above the cost of production. We have become very dependent on Canadian oil sands to replace declining supplies like those from Mexico's declining Cantarell field. But while some oil sands are profitable at the prices and even lower ones, many aren't and some are already being curtailed.

The other thing we have to fear is the rest of the world paying the same or less for oil and we paying hundreds due to a falling dollar if this G-20 meeting turns against it. Peter Schiff is saying it is no longer possible to save the dollar and by the end of 2009 it will be in serious trouble if not sooner. Again, watch for anything positive or negative about the dollar out of the G-20 meeting and this new global financial system they are trying to create. Some of the positive account balance nations think a new global currency is needed to replace the dollar.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2008/1112.html


Johne Browne has a pretty good article there. In it he points out that the stimulus package China is proposing, comparing their GDP to ours would mean we would have to spend $3 trillion to match it.

He has some other things to say that some here have been saying as well, about the U.S. and emerging markets.

What he really hits at is that they are going to spend on infrastructure and prepare for the return of the global economy while we have been spending on other things that will hurt our ability to compete when the global economy recovers.