August 20, 2008 3:43

Patriot Games

McCain doesn't think Obama's not a patriot, he just wants America to lose! From a town hall today:

Yesterday, Senator Obama got a little testy on this issue. He said that I am questioning his patriotism. Let me be clear: I am not questioning his patriotism; I am questioning his judgment. Senator Obama has made it clear that he values withdrawal from Iraq above victory in Iraq, even today with victory in sight. Over and over again, he has advocated unconditional withdrawal - regardless of the facts on the ground. And he voted against funding for troops in combat, after saying it would be wrong to do so. He has made these decisions not because he doesn't love America, but because he doesn't seem to understand the consequences of an American defeat in Iraq, how it would risk a wider war and threaten the security of American families. I am going to end this war, but when I bring our troops home, they will come home with honor and victory, leaving Iraq secured as a democratic ally in the Arab heartland.

I doubt this will satisfy Obama, but it's not really supposed to, is it?

August 20, 2008 3:12

I Am On Obama's Shortlist

For all you know, I mean. Which is to say: all of the speculation that's going on today is pointless and kind of embarrassing. When the NYT gets away with running the headline "Obama to name pick soon," we have reached the point at which the MSM is delivering news with a negative information value. You actually know less about the situation after reading the article than you did before.

Totally time for a blogger accuracy panel.

Meanwhile, I hear McCain is vetting Phelps.

August 20, 2008 2:52

Stephanie Tubbs Jones

Pioneering Ohio Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones has died suddenly of has suffered an aneurysm.* The daughter of an airport skycap was the first African-American woman to be elected to Congress from Ohio, but that was only one of the many trails she blazed. More recently, she was a familiar sight on the presidential campaign trail. It's hard to think of anyone whose name was not Clinton who worked harder on behalf of Hillary Clinton, and Tubbs Jones surely deserves some of the credit for her crucial victory in Ohio.

UPDATE: This statement from John Kerry, for whom she also worked hard:

"When she was on your side, she was there all the way. We spent so many days together in 2004 and our friendship endured. She was one of a kind, the genuine article. We are praying for her family and loved ones.”

*UPDATE2: Numerous news outlets that reported she had died are now retracting those reports, and saying she is in critical condition. I join them in updating this post, and in hoping and praying for her recovery.

August 19, 2008 5:59

Going Second

Last week, the New Republic published a piece by Nate Silver--sadly, no longer available on the TNR website, so no link--measuring the so-called post-Convention bounce since, I think, 1988, and there was a pretty clear pattern: the party that went second--the incumbent party--usually had the bigger bounce. One clear exception was Bill Clinton in 1992, who followed his convention with a bracing cross-country bus tour (a novelty at the time) and had the good fortune of being followed by George H.W. Bush's not-so-hot show.

But going second certainly worked for Bush in 1988, Gore--momentarily--in 2000 and, especially, Bush in 2004. It's a terrific advantage, a home-team advantage, as any baseball team will tell you. John McCain certainly had it at Saddleback Church last Saturday night. It'll be an advantage when it comes to picking his vice president. And I'd guess that, unless McCain really blows his convention, it'll work for the Republicans this year. Indeed, the effect may be heightened by the fact that the Democratic convention will be immediately followed by the GOP, thereby blunting the Obama afterglow... McCain's smart decision to reveal his vice presidential choice on the day after Obama's big speech, means that Obama will have to share the stage that Thursday night with an orgy of Republican vice presidential speculation similar to the one taking place among the Democrats right now. (I"ll repeat a prejudice: the veepstakes--ugly, ugly term--is the most consistently overhyped story of any given presidential season.)

Which raises the question of why on earth the Democrats scheduled their convention soclose to the Republicans this year. Answer: they were fighting the last war. In 2004, the Republicans scheduled their convention at the last possible moment, just before Labor Day, to make maximum use of their private $$$ before the federal spending regulations kicked it. The Democrats--whose federal spending restraints kicked in the moment John Kerry was nominated--had to hold their fire through most of Swift Boat August, or thought they had to, so that they wouldn't be at a spending disadvantage in September and October.

This time, of course, there are no federal spending restraints since Obama raised a gazillion dollars, mostly from small donors, and refused to participate in the federal system. And Obama won't have the space to reinforce his acceptance speech as Clinton and Gore did so effectively in 1992. This is a significant disadvantage going into the fall campaign. The GOP have a much better chance of bouncing out of their convention.

On the other hand, the effect of even great convention speeches tends to be fleeting: As I've written here before, most presidential contests are decided in the debates. In any case, don't be surprised if John McCain has a solid lead come mid-September. But that's when the game will really begin.

August 19, 2008 12:17

Uhm....

This was hilarious when we came up with it a 3AM after several tequila shots two months ago.

August 19, 2008 10:05

A New Tougher Obama--Continued

He was strong this morning at the VFW. He opened with this:

Yesterday, Senator McCain came before you. He is a man who has served this nation honorably, and he correctly stated that one of the chief criteria for the American people in this election is going to be who can exercise the best judgment as Commander in Chief. But instead of just offering policy answers, he turned to a typical laundry list of political attacks. He said that I have changed my position on Iraq when I have not. He said that I am for a path of “retreat and failure.” And he declared, “Behind all of these claims and positions by Senator Obama lies the ambition to be president” – suggesting, as he has so many times, that I put personal ambition before my country.
That is John McCain’s prerogative. He can run that kind of campaign, and – frankly – that’s how political campaigns have been run in recent years. But I believe the American people are better than that.

What followed was an eminently reasonable set of presidential defense and veterans priorities, which is why you should read the full speech.

August 19, 2008 9:58

Tuesday Chum Report: The Squishy Oil Barrel

After a week on vacation in two of America's grandest cathedrals--the Las Vegas strip and the Yosemite high country--it was all too easy to forget about the piddly gimmickry of presidential politics. But no sooner had I landed in New Orleans last night, and checked into the McCain campaign's hotel, that it all came flooding back. Outside the hotel bar, an unidentified man delivered manila envelopes with the latest example of Barack Obama's vision for changing politics as usual.*

Envelope contents:
-One (1) squishy, stress-relieving oil barrel inscribed with the words "ExxonMcCain '08"
-Two (2) campaign buttons with same slogan
-Two (2) bumper stickers with same.
-One (1) ironic press release that declares "Oil Companies First."

The whole gift package, which can be seen here, was "paid for by the Democratic National Committee and authorized by Obama for America." The Obama team is trying to highlight the fact that McCain supports a large corporate tax cut and more oil drilling, which would benefit companies like Exxon. Nevermind other inconvenient facts: Obama senior economic adviser Jason Furman says the Obama campaign is also considering a corporate tax cut. Exxon employees have given more money to Obama than McCain. McCain opposed the 2005 Energy Bill, which gave a bunch of new tax subsidies to Exxon; Obama supported the bill. McCain led the Republican charge to fight global warming, an issue that ExxonMobil spent millions to obfuscate.

But that's how it goes. This ain't a casino or a granite peak, where at least everything follows certain laws of nature. This is politics in a twisted frenzy. And we got 77 days to go.

* Er, sarcasm.

UPDATE: Of course this does not mean that there is no truth to the charge that McCain and Republican policies tend to be favored by the oil industry. (Obama has closer historical ties to both the ethanol industry, and on some issues, the coal industry.) This from CNN: "[McCain] has taken $1.4 million from oil industry employees in the 2007-2008 election cycle, more than any other politician, according to [the Center for Responsive Politics]. That's over three times as much as Barack Obama, who ranks just below Hillary Clinton as the highest Democrat recipient. Those numbers are consistent with how employees in the oil sector give overall - nearly three quarters of their money usually goes to Republicans, although they have been leaning a bit more Democratic in the recent election, according to CRP."

August 19, 2008 9:07

A New Tougher Obama

was what I saw yesterday in Albuquerque.

August 19, 2008 7:29

What About Hagel?

With Richard Lugar's name being mentioned lately as a long-shot contender to be Obama's running mate, it's worth examining the pros and cons of a bi-partisan unity ticket. If Obama were to select Lugar, he would get the foreign policy credentials and Washington experience that would also come with picking Joe Biden or Bill Richardson or Evan Bayh. But he would get something else that those three estimable Democrats couldn't provide -- a resounding reaffirmation of Obama's central message and promise, i.e., that his campaign is about transcending the old politics and divisions in the country and building something new, less partisan, more hopeful and, most importantly, more effective. What better way to double down on that message than by choosing a member of the other to be his running mate?

There are plenty of arguments against doing it -- most pointedly, the potential backlash among Democratic party regulars and committed progressives at the idea that the person a heartbeat away from the presidency in a Democratic White House could be a lifelong Republican with, in their view, an unsavory record on issues like abortion rights, gay rights, taxes, health care, the environment -- you name it. And that's probably a deal-breaker.

But if Obama wanted to make a truly big statement before the convention, he might want to risk alienating Democrats by picking a Republican running mate. And if he'd consider Dick Lugar, why not Nebraska's retiring Sen. Chuck Hagel? In addition to having turned strongly against the Iraq war and having traveled with Obama to Iraq last month, Hagel is, like John McCain, a Vietnam vet with a compelling story of combat heroism (his own body on fire, Hagel pulled his brother Tom from a burning APC that had been struck by a mine). After returning from the war, he served for a year as deputy in Reagan's Veterans' Affairs administration, then made a fortune in the fledging celluar phone business. His voting record in the Senate is to the right of Lugar's, but he'd be much more likely to be an effectively aggressive, attacking running mate than would the gentlemanly senior senator from Indiana.

Back in 2004, Bush operatives worried that if John Kerry could persuade John McCain to run on a unity ticket, the president would lose his re-election bid. It probably won't happen this year, either. But if it did, says a well-connected Democratic operative and fundraiser, "it could seal an Obama win."

August 18, 2008 4:01

Saddleback to the Future

McCain operatives back-engineer a way to trick the cone of silence.

I agree with Joe that the cheating charge against McCain is pretty flimsy, beside the point, but that doesn't mean I'm not enjoying the fracas,* No matter what you think of the charge that McCain cheated at Rick Warren's event, you have to love that the argument exists, especially given that a fair amount of commenters seem to think that there was, you know, an actual Cone of Silence backstage at the Saddleback Church. McCain, it turns out, was not only not in the non-existent Cone of Silence, he was in his motorcade. Where, the Obama campaign alleges, he was given information about Obama's answers via his shoe phone.

*Sorry.

UPDATE: IVB: Phones only come standard with the $700 model iShoes. But they can't cut and paste.