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Zimbabwe: Let Hope Not Blind Us to Mugabe's Ruthlessness
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Business Day (Johannesburg)
OPINION
16 May 2008
Posted to the web 16 May 2008
Jens Laurson and George Pieler
Johannesburg
HOPE springs eternal. For Zimbabweans, it is the only way to remain sane and civil in a country so thoroughly ruined by the ineptitude, corruption, and racial hatred stirred up by Robert Mugabe and his cronies.
Now hope is the only way to survive Zimbabwe's theatre-of-the-absurd election drama, which is now into its second month.
International do-gooders found a convenient kernel of hope in the March 29 vote, which according to local tallies was handily won by Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). This was reinforced by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) sidling up to the MDC and offering mediation between Tsvangirai and Mugabe, who took his sweet time figuring out the best way to massage the numbers.
But Mugabe demanded his recount long before releasing the "official" tally, and now he is campaigning to overturn the MDC victory with a "runoff". The fact is Mugabe holds power, and that may be all he needs.
As it turns out, it's hard to mediate between good and evil. Zimbabwe's high court left Mugabe in control of the votes (expected), but freed MDC activists from detention (minimally laudable). Despite scornful rhetoric from the west and Zimbabwean civil society, Mugabe will survive yet again, absent bold action.
Last month, we were treated to the saga of the Chinese Flying Dutchman, bearing arms for Mugabe but barred entry by South African dock workers, and even the Angolan government. It turns out the arms got through Angola anyway, while the media focused on supposed African unanimity in keeping Zimbabwe arms-free.
A fine idea -- an arms embargo against Zimbabwe. A nice symbolic move, with little practical effect. Yet symbolism that conceals that foolish hopes, uninformed by common sense, can be worse than no hope at all.
Too many commentators let their happy hopes obscure reality, suggesting that Mugabe was on the -- democratic! -- way out. Alas, the "soft power" of moral suasion, diplomatic pressure, and pointed outspokenness is essential but inadequate for countries struggling to throw off tyranny. Even soft power demands a moral backbone, and sometimes a boldly waved stick. Good wishes for Zimbabwe are everywhere, but even the words are timid.
SADC, and SA in particular, should have the strongest interest in helping free Zimbabweans, but African leaders are reluctant to topple a corrupt regime lest they themselves be toppled. Calls for "smart sanctions" from Zimbabwe's neighbours, targeting the Mugabe elitists, while sparing the population (a meaningless distinction with inflation racing toward 200000%) echo what the west has done, with no effect. When UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown says Zimbabwe is in constitutional crisis, Mugabe is amused. For him, the only crisis would be genuine rule of law .
The west still misjudges how hapless and delusional Mugabe truly is (what self-respecting, tyrant could fail to properly rig the first election round?) and just how unpopular his reign is with Zimbabweans. Perhaps Mugabe was surprised of the latter, too, being surrounded only by sycophants and commandeered "supporters".
The international community must not now underestimate Mugabe's ruthlessness. Having lost, he is well on his way to re-winning through old-fashioned brute force. Sloppy at election-rigging, he remains at the top of his game in suppressing freedom, unhampered by a conscience. A few electoral committee workers beaten and arrested and the rest of the lot get the message: recounts and runoffs, until the result is "right". Everyone who is against him - whether Zimbabwean or foreign - is an agent of the colonialist forces that he sees everywhere.
That Zimbabwe's people haven't resorted to violence is to their great credit. Zimbabweans bear their suppression and ravaging poverty with astounding grace, instead of lapsing into violent anarchy as postcolonial Africa too often does. This is an asset greater than diamond mines or oil-fields could ever be.
Zimbabweans must keep their eyes on the prize -- freedom, an unimpeded civil society, a basic modicum of prosperity. The international community must tighten the screws everywhere -- and not just on armaments. Hard sanctions against Mugabe's regime, aid suspension, air-tight embargoes and trade restraints must accompany the rhetoric until Mugabe, long devoid of any moral legitimacy and now devoid of the last (fake, anyway) vestiges of democratic legitimacy, is gone.
Meanwhile, there should be planeloads of election monitors flying in to Harare night and day until an honest vote is counted, reported, and honoured by the regime. That's just what Tsvangirai is demanding. Now, where's Jimmy Carter when you need him? Carter helped Mugabe into power -- he might feel a moral obligation to help get him out.
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Laurson is editor-in-chief of the International Affairs Forum. Pieler is senior fellow with the Institute for Policy Innovation.
The majority of people in South Africa and Zimbabwe I'd say 99percent,are now becoming victims of this crisis.It shows how cowardly these cretins have become, recruiting gangs of vampire frenzied youth to do their evil bidding.All I can say is hold your faith and that each and every one of you can make a difference.Mugabe is like the warrior who destroys his castle from the inside out.Be strong and remember if evil defeats good it will try to destroy good forever!Listen to your hearts and not the screeching of these hyenas.
Budd, 99%? - WHAT A JOKE! This is the sort of fabricated lies that just does not make SENSE!
Well he's right in a sense. 99% are victims of the, now 355,000% inflation, are they not?
How do you know the arms on the ship of scum got in?
IIRC someone (police commissioner was it?) when asked about the shipment by a reporter replied, "in any case that shipment is now in Zimbabwe". Straight from the horses mouth.
Could you explain your comment please what is IIRC and which horses mouth did it come from? Do you remember when Ali in Iraq kept going on and on about Sadam being this and Sadam being that on TV and then it all turned out to be lies....called propaganda....Just interested because everyone elses point of view that I have read seem to think the arms stayed on the ship....can you enlighten me a little more.....
IIRC = If I Remember Correctly
The story I'm referring to is:
http://allafrica.com/stories/200805061078.html
Who knows whether it's true. I sincerely hope it isn't!
mindy 'who knows if it is true'? I thought you said it was from the horses mouth? - some more fabricated stories from you. You just keep on and on with this sort of **** Why dont you get a job?
I didn't say it was true I said it was from the horses mouth. It came out of Matonga's mouth, or do you deny he said it? Once again, you make a stupid assumption, and see how it makes you look! :-D
From the horses mouth: meaning information that comes from the highest authority or the inner circle
Why don't you get an education?
IIRC someone (police commissioner was it?) when asked about the shipment by a reporter replied, "in any case that shipment is now in Zimbabwe". Straight from the horses mouth.
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