Bio
He has served as a senior partnership manager in Silicon Valley, and managed both U.S. and international technology company partnerships. He has also served as a member of top management in a large public-private partnership.
He is currently an outside Director of a private capital markets company, and is involved in the early stage formation of alterative energy companies. He devotes approximately 50% of his time to volunteering and working on U.S. economic development to support expanded U.S. exports.
His main interest is in international hard and soft commodities issues, the dollar, and U.S. politics.
Long equity investments are in private and early ...
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I disagree. In many families they never run the math. For a worker making $10 per hour, if one member stayed at home, did all of the work there, took care of the kids (no babysitters), eliminated a car, they could have a better life and not need the second wage.
Keep in mind also that we are heading toward 1/4 of the economy being elderly......they don't need the one auto per person (we currently have 250 million vehicles). I think we are looking at a permanent reduction of about 40% in auto sales in the U.S.(down from 16 million to about 10-11 million vehicles. Auto sales growth will ALL be outside the U.S. We use to own 83% of the auto market, and thanks to running one of the most inefficient global auto supply chains on earth, we are at the point of bankruptcy for all of the Big3.
The credit card market is largely unsecured, and the rates and terms are easy to renegotiate (unlike mortgages). The real focus should be on following bankruptcies and new filings. What is clear is that we are going back to the culture of a few decades ago where credit is available to the creditworthy and you EARN the right to credit rather than getting credit because you "want" something. There is no more of this "risk management" by securitizing this weak credit and selling it offshore. Those days are OVER.
Steve,
I agree with you in a way. The U.S. is like an alcoholic. It does not want to admit to the failures of the past or its disease, it just assumes you can pile on more debt and "fix" the problem. You can't. It will expand the problem, and lead to no credit availability, since we have to borrow from abroad since we have no savings rate. We are simply wasting our goodwill by borrowing and throwing money at anything regardless of how obsolete.
And AGE LIMITS. We also need to limit the term of Committee Chairman. We have too many old guys that have nothing to lose by being Santa Claus.
Obstinat,
The average SS check (which is at risk today of decreasing) and Medicare (which is guaranteed to decrease) will lead to survival planning for most older Americans. With little or no savings, and wholesale dumping of houses to raise cash to live, we are entering a new era or austerity. There is a zero probability that we can use the number of houses that we have today, or the number of cars. Cars will go first, then housing.